主权信用质量边际恶化与债务货币化视角下的黄金定价机制研究
Journal: Economics DOI: 10.32629/ej.v9i4.3403
Abstract
针对近年来黄金价格与美债实际利率之间关联弱化现象,本文系统分析了信用货币时 代黄金定价机制演化规律及内在逻辑。首先梳理了以实际利率为核心的传统分析框 架,剖析了美元主导的国际货币体系运行平稳、黄金以金融投资属性为主导等结构性 前提,厘清了传统框架的内在局限。在此基础上,研究美元信用边际恶化、债务货币 化路径锁定、央行储备行为转向及油价扰动等新变化对黄金定价机制的影响。通过 构建“短期货币金融—中期财政债务—长期货币体系”的分析结构,进一步分析了不同时 间跨度下、不同价格区间内、不同宏观环境中金价演化规律,为系统性解释黄金定价 机制的动态演化提供了分析框架。本研究为解释黄金与传统定价模型的结构性背离 提供了分析框架,对主权信用边际恶化、债务货币化视角下金价定价机制分析与长期 资产配置实践具有参考价值。
Keywords
黄金价格；美国债务；主权信用；债务货币化；长期债务周期
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