三峡库区氮素收支估算及环境影响

Journal: Ecological Environment and Protection DOI: 10.12238/eep.v8i2.2508

潘星睿, 张帅, 王浩铮, 张六一, 李廷真

重庆三峡学院 三峡库区水环境演变与污染防治重庆市重点实验室

Abstract

本研究基于2021年三峡流域化肥用量、人口数量及工业排放等数据,估算了氮素输入、输出及盈余量,并预测了氮减排情景的影响。研究结果显示,三峡流域氮素输入总量为196.12万t,主要来源为化肥施用(40.2%)和工业排放(18.9%)。农业活动(化肥、生物固氮、秸秆返田)占总氮输入的50%。氮素输出总量为171.70万t,主要输出方式为水体流失(20.5%%)和禽畜产品(27.6%)。流域氮素总体表现为盈余,盈余总量为24.42万t,可能导致土壤酸化、水体富营养化等环境问题。通过不同情景预测,若不采取干预措施(BAU情景),2035年氮素盈余将达至29.46万t。而在化肥减量(FR)和综合政策(S2+S3+S4)情景下,氮素盈余将显著减少,最终在2035年达到相对平衡状态。研究表明,化肥减量是最有效的管理措施,综合政策对控制氮素污染效果显著。研究建议进一步加强化肥减量、节能减排等措施,以实现氮素收支平衡,改善生态环境和促进农业可持续发展。

Keywords

三峡库区;氮污染;氮素盈余;情景预测

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