How Trump Can Win the U.S.-China Trade War: A Path Analysis Based on Industrial Chain Restructuring and Strategic Balance
Journal: Modern Economics & Management Forum DOI: 10.32629/memf.v6i4.4238
Abstract
The Trump administration’s U.S.-China trade war, centered on "America First", sought to weaken China’s economic advantages through tariffs and technological containment. However, its overreliance on unilateral strategies ultimately failed to achieve its objectives. This paper critiques the limitations of absolute advantage theory and examines the current state of U.S.-China supply chain interdependence. It argues that for the U.S. to secure long-term victory in the trade war, it must move beyond efficiency-centric thinking and adopt a balanced approach combining industrial chain localization, diversified supply chains, and strategic state intervention. The outcome of the trade war hinges not on short-term policy tools but on systemic solutions to structural issues like industrial hollowing-out and supply chain vulnerabilities.
Keywords
U.S.-China trade war; Trump administration; Revised Absolute Advantage Theory; industrial chain restructuring; supply chain security
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[5] GlobalData. (2025). China currently controls over 69% of global rare earth production. Mining Technology. https://www.mining-technology.com/analyst-comment/china-global-rare-earth-production/
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